Lies, Damn Lies, and ESPN's Statistic

I'm really not sure the last time I wrote about anything besides hockey on this blog. It just happened at some point. Originally I thought I needed to be broader, writing about the happenings in a wide variety of sports. Somehow I eventually settled into hockey. Which retrospectively makes a good deal of sense since it is both a niche sport and the sport I am most fond of. However, if my obsession with hockey is superseded by anything, it would be my sad devotion to numbers.

I quantify everything, from the number of steps up a stairwell to the exact amount of coffee grinds I use for a single cup. Numbers and I are BFFs. Which is precisely why I get so upset when they are woefully misused. Numbers are my little bear cubs, and you don't get between a bear and his cubs.

And this is why I feel the need to rail against, of all things, the statistic that ESPN is using to underscore the NFL's fining of "Gun Slinger", and general ass-hat, Brett Favre.

Since the $50,000 fine was announced earlier this week, I have repeatedly heard and read a startling statistic recited, one that goes something along the lines of "the fine is the equivalent of fining the average person $1.20".

It didn't seem right, so I took to tracking the original source of the statistic, only to discover it's appearance in the sidebar of an article on the fine at the Mothership, the Worldwide Leader, herself.

Now this is a great statistic for making a point because it shockingly underlines how much money a professional football player pockets, to the extent that a fine that would possibly bankrupt you or I amounts to nothing more than pocket change for the leagues career interceptions leader. And that's precisely why ESPN concocted it.

However, this is a horrible statistic because it is so blatantly and purposefully untruthful that it goes beyond the extent of bad math and settles clearly in the territory of bad journalism.

From the first time I heard it, it sounded off. Quickly pulling up the calc app, I calculated the fine to be 00.3125% of Favre's $16M salary this year. Estimating the average person's salary to be somewhere in the range of $45K, this equates to a .... $125 fine. Surely small enough to still make ESPN's original point, and yet drastically different from their numbers.

So how did they come to the $1.20 statistic? Just bad math? Maybe a misplaced decimal? Something surely we have all fallen to at one point or another. Sadly, no, they were decidedly dishonest because, well hey, it makes a more "shocking" statistic.

See, ESPN decided that instead of looking at it as a percentage of his income, clearly the easiest and most logical way to go about it, they would frame the statistic in the context of the amount of time that Brett Favre "worked". And how should they go about deciding time worked? Easy - minutes in a game. Which is something akin to deciding how long a writer has "worked" on an article by determining the amount of time it takes a person to read it.

Farve's $16M contract easily breaks down to $1M per game, with 60 minutes of play per game (even though - as even my mother, who hasn't watched a football game since the Cowboys defeated the Steelers in Super Bowl XXX, knows - a football game actually lasts somewhere around 180 minutes). Now dividing this $1M by the "60 minutes of game play", they reached a completely asinine and misleading statistic that Brett Favre makes $17,000 per minute of "work".

And thus, since it would only take Favre just under 3 minutes of work to make $50K, it is the equivalent of $1.20 for an Average Joe like us (another quick calculation determines that I am well below status of "Average Joe" when it comes to pay grades).

Not only does ESPN ignore the actual length of a game, they pretend somehow that Favre shows up at 1 PM on Sunday, clocks in, plays the game (in just 60 minutes), and clocks out. Even for Favre, who knows practically no limits to avoiding practice, this assumption that he only works 16 hours a year is beyond preposterous.

The most upsetting aspect of the situation is how their concocted statistic undermines an essentially valid point: Favre is being slapped on the wrist.

Whether you use their bogus of $1.20 or a much more accurate $125, the point remains the same, after his bigger-than-the-game shenanigans, refusing to cooperate with the NFL's investigation of his ... umm ... "dissemination of  unorthodox self-portraits", Favre got off easy. 

It's a shame that, not completely unlike their "Gun Slinger" in a big moment, EPSN improvised, went outside their journalism playbook, and made a idiotically pointless and self-inflicted error.

Shots Taken per Goal

In a battle along the half-boards a winger kicks the puck back to the blue-line. The defenseman throws it across the ice to his partner, who settles the puck down, takes a stride towards the net, raises his stick and sends a shot .... three feet wide and a foot too high, right off the windshield.

Missed shots tend to drive me crazy.  I've been known to fire off a quick frustrated tweet when someone (usually named Kris Letang) can't hit the net. And when I'm at work reminded myself how poor of a hockey player I am, there is nothing more likely to throw me into a Bruce Bodreau-esque tirade than not being able to put the rubber on net.

This isn't something the NHL takes into consideration with it's shooting percentage numbers. They simply divide a players Goals by Shots on Goal. Something Alexander Ovechkin, with a league leading 66 Missed Shots, might be alright with, but something surely Daniel Briere, who has a mere 27 Missed Shots, would feel is misleading.

And so here I've thrown together the On Goal % and Shots Taken per Goal statistics.

I have added Shots on Goal and Missed Shots to create Total Shots Taken. Based on that number I divided a players Shots on Goal by Total Shots Taken for the On Goal %. Then I divide Total Shots Taken by Goals to determine how many shots on average a player takes for a goal.

For example, Steven Stamkos scores a goal for every 6.6 shots taken. 74.4% of those shots taken are on goal.

My Thoughts:

- It comes as no surprise that Claude Giroux tops this list. As a Penguins fan I've seen more than enough of Giroux as he develops into an all-star caliber player

- Crosby and Stamkos. After cooling off for a bit, Stammer is back at it. Just maybe, with them nipping at each others heels, they can push each other further, like Magic and Bird. 50 in 50 looks out of reach, but someone, or both, might score 70 goals for the first time in 14 years.

- Even not accounting for the bevy of frozen rubber he's thrown wide of the net, Ovechkin's shooting percentage has taken a big hit so far this season.Taking all those missed shots into account, it isn't pretty for Ovechkin. You've gotta scroll for a while down that chart before you find his name.

- Same goes for Evgeni Malkin.

- As an Eastern Conference fan, I don't get to see nearly enough games from teams out west. This means I'm usually cautious of pontificating on guys that I haven't seen a ton of. That said, let's agree that Chris Stewart needs to take more shots. He is right behind Crosby and Stamkos at 6.9 Shots Taken per Goal, and he's put an insane 86.6% of his shots on net.

Complete stats available in a Google Spreadsheet

Disparity

With the disparity between games played, even a quarter way into the NHL season, the regular standings are pretty indiscernible. Unlike baseball, standard standings do not make use of the Games Behind statistic, which, when comparing a team like the Bruins who have played 17 games to the Penguins who have played 21, can be quite useful.

And so here we have it. A current (set to be out of date by nightfall) chart of the pertinent statistics in terms of games played.

[click to make it eat its vegetables and grow big and strong]

My Thoughts:

- Biggest drop from ranking by points to points per game? My Pittsburgh Penguins who go from 6th to 16th. Eventually GP is going to even out and the Pens are going to have to keep with their current pace, 9 pts in the last 5 games, to stay ahead of the pack.

- Where are these goals coming from in Boston? They're averaging 3 goals/game, on pace for 40 more goals than last season. Who would have thought free agent acquisition Nathan Horton would bring this much?

- The Panthers have to improve, right? The only difference between Florida and the San Jose is a single win and 4 overtime losses. All of the Panthers 9 losses have come in regulation, which is why they are so low in Pts/GP, but they've got a positive goal differential.

- The Blues have an even goal differential, but are currently the 5th best team in Pts/GP. Why? Because Halak has fallen apart. Factor out his last 4 losses and the Blues are +14 in 14 GP.

- The West is tight. 10 teams between 20-23 pts. Seriously.

- Look at the huge gap between the top 4 playoff teams in the East and the bottom 4. Washington, Boston, Montreal, and Philadelphia are in the top 6. Tampa, Pittsburgh, New York, and Carolina are 17th-23rd.

- Holding current pace, it's going to take 96 pts to make the playoffs in the West, and only 82 in the East. So basically, yeah, the West is probably going to have multiple teams miss the playoffs when they have better records than East playoff teams. Again.

Snitches

You might want to take a seat. I have news.

I don't know if you have heard or not, but in some emails from within NHL headquarters three years ago someone had the audacity to claim that a certain player, Marc Savard, has a proclivity towards accentuating penalties in an effort to buy calls.

Yes. Diving. Or being "a fake artist" as Colin Campbell so eloquently worded it.

I am shocked ... let me repeat ... SHOCKED that such accusations would be vocalized.

No one, especially Bruins fans, have ever accused Savard of diving. Don't even try Googling it, it's a fact.

In all my years as a fan of the Pittsburgh Penguins, (particularly the last five) I have never heard even the slightest hint of such impropriety in our fair sport.

Have You no respect for the sanctity of the game, sir?

Exactly what do you even know about this young man? On what authority can you make such incendiary statements?

Colin Campbell, coach of NY Rangers when they drafting Marc Savard in 1995

And even if, dare I say it, atrocities such as diving had infiltrated the game of ice hockey, have you not heard a little phrase that goes something along the lines of "snitches get stitches"?

Why would you rat out a guy like that Colie? Do we really need that kind of interoffice gossip flying around the NHL. Don't be a Chatty Cathy.

I mean, what business of this Stephen character is it what Savard does?

 Stephen Walkom, Director of Officiating. 

Keep that kind of garbage to yourself Mr. Campbell. We don't need those foul accusations sullying our great game.


But hold on. I'd hate to leave it like that.

As any great disciplinarian would, I, like Mr. Campbell, know that a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down.

That's why I'd like to congratulate Campbell. Why might you ask? For being a good father.

In those same e-mails Colin did something else. Something any loving dad would do, use his powerful position to lean on the governing body that oversees an official that, according to the hometown radio broadcast, made a questionable call against his son.

It's touching really. Just makes me want to give my own dad a call and thank him for the behind the scenes bureaucratic pressure he applied to help me get to where I am today. Thanks pops.

And so, in closing, I say this to you Mr. Campbell: A little less meddling in other peoples business and a little more being a super dad.

The Blame Game

I have counted. It's been 16 months, 2 weeks, and 2 days. Since that picture was taken. Since Marc-Andre Fleury backstopped the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Stanley Cup championship. Since Fleury allegedly answered the questions and doubt that has dogged him through his career.

"Trade Fluery" opined one fan on twitter last night, using the unorthodox "u-e" spelling. "fleury is considered a part of the core. but his play is quickly making him expendable. and his contract an albatross" chimed in another.

Ten games into the 2011 season and the 26-year-old former first overall draft pick with a $5 million-a-year contract has played five games. He has won just one. He has allowed 3.4 goals-a-game, and mounted a pathetic .861 save percentage.

33-year-old perennial NHL backup, working for just over the league minimum at 500K, Brent Johnson has been between the pipes for the other five games. He has won four. His only loss came in a valiant 0-1 overtime game in St. Louis. He is allowing only 1.39 goals-a-game and is 3rd in the league with a stifling .951 save percentage.

And less than a year and a half later, in light of the goaltending controversy, the questions have once again bubbled to the surface. Is Fleury a liability?  Can he be a number one?

While Penguins fans seem to never back down from confronting even the slightest of perceived Crosby criticisms, Fleury has been so often the target of blame that it has become a joke among the fan base. It has it's own Facebook group and Twitter hashtag.

A year prior to lifting Lord Stanley's Cup, following a 2008 Finals loss to the Red Wings in which Evgeni Malkin was nearly invisible, Fleury received an inordinate amount of  criticism despite making 205 saves over the six game Detroit offensive onslaught. While he made a few costly mistakes, each one was magnified, whether it was his rebounds, tendency to overplay the puck, or making his way onto the ice.

He's been targeted so frequently that it almost feels like a knee-jerk instinctive reaction to defend Fleury. Undoubtedly he is struggling. And at the same time Johnson is playing as well as ever has. If Johnson wasn't so hot we'd just look to see Fleury play through it. You can blame him for his lackluster play, but with the exception of the 3-2 Montreal loss in which he allowed a late cheap goal, you can hardly blame the notches in the loss column on Fleury. 

The Penguins play fast and loose. While their defense leads the league in points, they've seen defensive-minded players leave via free agency one after another the past few years. Hal Gill, Rob Scuderi, Mark Eaton. Orpik still remains a force around the perimeter, arguably their only shutdown player Jordan Staal has yet to suit up this season due to a foot infection that is beginning to warrant it's own low-budget horror film adaptation. They allowed 237 goals last season, more than any other team that qualified for the postseason.

It's not easy in the Penguins crease. Even at the top of his game Fleury has never been a statistically great tender. Of the four seasons he's played over 40 games his best save percentage is a pedestrian .912. But despite an undeserved reputation that has followed him from his junior days, Fleury has been a big-game goaltender. He is unquestionably an asset with an uncanny ability to bounce back.

In the second greatest hockey game I've ever witnessed, game five of the 2008 finals, Fleury turned in an all-time great playoff performance, making 55 total saves, including the last 24 over two and half periods of overtime play in which one mistake would end the Penguins season.

In the first round of the 2009 postseason match-up with the Flyers Fleury stole games two and four, making, respectively, 38 saves on 40 shots, and an unreal 45 saves on 46 shots.

Following a 5-0 debacle in game five of the 2009 Cup Finals, again against the Wings, Fleury allowed a single goal on 26 shots in game six. In the decisive seventh game, with everything on the line, let's remember that while the eventual Conn Smyth winner hadn't scored since the first period of game four, and Crosby spent the majority of the 3rd on the bench injured, it was Max Talbot's two goals and Fleury's 23 saves on 24 shots that sealed the deal.

Tomorrow night against the division rival Flyers, play Johnson. Ride the hot hand, because that is what you do in hockey. Every season we relearn the importance of those early games when a playoff spot is decided by a single point. Play Johnson because he'll give us the best chance to pocket a couple points in the standings.

But make no mistake, in several months time when things really start to matter, Fleury will be in the crease for the Penguins doing what he has done over the past five seasons, giving the Penguins their best chance to win.

And shouldering the blame when they don't.

Infographic: Spending By Position

click on infographic for full-size

Infographic: Shut-outs Since the Lockout

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Infographic: Hat-tricks Since the Lockout

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On Balance

"It’s not that simple,” Brian Burke said, voicing the minority opinion in front of a Toronto conference room filled with the most influential minds in hockey.

In the afterglow of the games once in a generation success at the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics, the overwhelming consensus at the Word Hockey Summit was that it is, in fact, that simple. The NHL should go to Sochi in 2014 with almost no reservations.

Overall the Summit appears to have been a success, bringing different perspectives from management, players, and media members into the same room to discuss the biggest issues in the game. Though, with much at stake and the perception amongst hockey’s mavens to be swung, it was not without its share of political theater, at times devolving into what appeared to be hockey’s “spin alley”.

Speaking on behalf of his Maple Leaf boss and the other 29 franchise owners who have yet to make a decision on participating in the games, Burke lends his well deserved creditability to the argument that while everyone is in favor of returning, the deal involves complexities that prevent the league and players association from rubber stamping it without further information. An argument that seems like a more than reasonable stance until said complexities are examined.

Perhaps too aware of the way millionaire owners would come across holding out of the Olympics for their own gain, Burke, who put together the silver medal Team USA squad in his first term as general manager, attempted to take the side of his players.

“They aren't paid,” he argued. Mentioning the airplane tickets and hotels the players had to pay for any friends of family that joined them for the events, as if the IOC should bend over backwards accommodating player entourages. But buried in his less than believable support for the players was the real point, the one thing ownership would have people walking away from the discussion remembering. The sticking point that has kept the NHL from enlisting for another Winter Olympics: “The IOC makes a fortune off this thing.”

Other arguments are moot. 15 of the 16 teams that make the NHL playoffs don’t pay the players for the experience either. Brilliant Red Wings GM Ken Holland argues a point of view that hemust be far too intelligent to actually believe. That the travel could affect players and in turn cost teams wins, and as we saw this past spring, even a single point can decide whether a team makes the postseason or not.

Imagine how criminal it would be

if a playoff spot was decided by

something as silly and outside the

sanctity of the game as traveling.

No, we know how these things

are supposed to be decided:

Breakaway contests.

But that argument rings a little hallow when the league itself will send teams to Helsinki, Stockholm, and Prague to start off the season as part of the NHL Premiere program, now in its fourth year.

And if the league is particularly interested in eliminating needless travel and interruptions in the schedule, perhaps they should start with nixing the now entirely pointless All-Star weekend.

Any reluctance to enlist for the Sochi games instead can be more accurately summed up in a single word for Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly when he referred to players simply as “assets”.

To the owners, most of which are extremely successful business men, that is what players are. They are something that they invest millions and millions of dollars into, and as a result they lure the top talents and allow them to play at their absolute peak. They are afforded the best equipment, coaching, training, facilities, and health care that money can buy.

And every four years these elite players take that talent, paid for and fostered by NHL owners, and play essentially for free for another organization that makes money hand over fist.

The IOC made nearly $400M in
Beijing in 2008. Or, based on his
contract negotiations with the
Devils, enough to lock up Ilya
Kovalchuk through 2067.

While numbers from the 2010 games have yet to be reported, the IOC had a net revenue of $2.4 billion in 2008 from the Beijing games, off of which they made a cool $383.3 million in earnings. Meanwhile, based on a November report from Forbes magazine, 14 of the 30 NHL franchises operated at a loss last season.

When you ignore the fact that it is their very own CBA that is responsible for suffocating smaller revenue teams, it almost seems reasonable. Almost.

The IOC takes advantage of NHL assets, and in turn the NHL wants something back. Even if players, especially the leagues Russian talent, seem absolutely eager and willing to head back to the games again. Superstar Alexander Ovechkin has already stated that he intends to go either way. Yet owners are willing to play the “as long as you live in my house you’ll live by my rules” card.

See, if we look at statements made by the league’s own fearless leader, Commission Gary Bettman, this is really all about its broadcast . No one has called for the IOC to send a giant check to the NHL. No one has asked for the IOC to pick up the tab on 2 weeks of the NHL players contracts that it’ll tap.

“If we are going to disappear for the better part two weeks, we want to make sure it’s worth it,” Bettman said. “Particularly if the time zone puts you eight hours ahead of the east coast.”

As mind blowing as it might seem, this whole thing is apparently just the league posturing itself to promote the game better. Which, based on your perspective, is either the height of hypocrisy considering the leagues embarrassing exclusive cable contract with VS. Or for those particularly stubbornly “glass half full” people, a lesson learned, albeit five years too late.

The International Olympic Committee has yet to even award the US television rights to the Sochi games, pushing back bidding multiple times in an attempt to deal the rights in a more favorable economic environment. Without a broadcast partner decided, shouldn’t the league be hesitant to make any decision? Isn’t that the type of information the league needs to come to a decision?

The Globe and Mail's Bruce
Dowbiggin reported that NBC
has prepared two contracts.
One if the league participates
in Sochi, one if they don't.

Perhaps, but with NBC’s $200+ million loss on the Vancouver games, and ice hockey being one of the Winter Olympics signature events, and with broadcast networks lining up with bids that rival African countries GDPs, I’m betting the TV side is arguing the reverse logic. How are networks supposed to deal for the TV rights without knowledge of whether or not the greatest ice hockey players in the world will be at the rinks in Sochi?

And make no mistake, even if the US TV rights haven’t been secured yet, no one is going to be hiding the coverage on a third rate network, like say, Versus. Alongside NBC, FOX and ESPN are lining up to bid on the US TV rights for the Sochi games.

In an understatement for the century, Bettman characterized the 2010 Vancouver games as being “on balance, good”. But, of course, not before first making it clear that “even when it’s very good, there are issues” and calling Olympic participation “a mixed bag”.

Now see, here is where I differ from the all mighty and powerful commission. If I was representing a group of owners, nearly half of whom lost money in 2009, I’d have another name for a national event like the USA v. Canada gold medal game that drew 27.6 million US viewers, the most that have watched a hockey game since Miracle on Ice. It would go something like, “The answer to all our prayers” or perhaps “eureka”.

There is too much to gain by participating. When the leagues marketing strategy can best be described as “preaching to the choir”, the Olympics succeed at doing something the league hasn’t, getting people who don’t watch hockey to watch hockey.

The question on everyone’s lips around the NHL was whether or not the game would get a “bump” based on the success of the Olympics. It was answered 3 months later when the 2010 Stanley Cup Finals became the highest viewed in 36 years.

But the issues taken with the broadcasting continue. Sure, Vancouver was the greatest thing to happen to the sport in the US since Al Michaels exclaimed that immortal phrase as the clock approach zeros in Lake Placid, but that kind of success could never be replicated outside of the continent, right? Definitely not if the broadcasts will be taking place between 4AM and 2PM EST.

If there is one sport
that hockey is ahead
of in the US peaking
order it's pro soccer.

Now here, Bettman might have a point … if three months ago ESPN didn’t take the South African hosted 2010 World Cup, broadcast it between 6 in the morning and 2 in the afternoon, and turn it into what can only be described as a national phenomenon. Ratings up 41% from 2006, and with the final match-up that set the record for US viewership of a men’s soccer game.

Or as Bettman would probably describe it, “being, on balance, good for soccer.”

So no matter what angle you try to take on the 2014 Sochi games, the NHL players are going to participate. Anything you hear between now and the point the deal is official that implies anything to say the contraire can only be summed up as political posturing.

And any person affiliated with the league or the players association who tell you anything besides “We love and are honored to participate in the Winter Olympics, we are working hard to come to an agreement with the IOC, and we fully expect to be back in 2014” is either playing you for a fool, or they themselves, “on balance”, are a complete and utter moron.

Someone Must Be Blamed

“This is all your fault. All you had to do was win a shootout. If the Flyers win the Stanley Cup, I’ll never forgive you.”

These were the words I sent to a good friend and Rangers fan in the aftermath of the Flyers Mike Richards lifting the Prince of Wales trophy after eliminating the Montreal Canadiens and advancing as the Eastern Conference representation in the 2010 Stanley Cup Finals.

Forty-eight days ago the Philadelphia Flyers and the New York Rangers went to an overtime shootout in game number 82, the last of the regular season. With an overtime point apiece, both teams sat deadlocked at 87 points for the final seed of the Eastern Conference. The winner of the three round shoot out would advance to the postseason. The loser was done.

That was how close the Flyers came to not even making the dance. Tied at 1-1 in the third round, Claude Giroux beat Henrik Lundqvist, putting the season on Flyer’s goaltender Brian Boucher. He saved the Olli Jokinen backhand shot, and the Flyers made it into the playoffs on the last play of their regular season.

That was how close I was, as a Penguins fan deep in Flyers territory, from avoiding this whole ordeal.

Twenty-two days ago the Flyers entered overtime in game four of the second round series tied 4-4 with the Boston Bruins. After eliminating their Atlantic division rivals, the New Jersey Devils in the opening round, the Flyers had struggled mightily with the Bruins. After a tight overtime loss in the series opener in Boston, the Flyers dropped games two and three. Down three games to none, the Flyers entered overtime in game four in front of a home Wachovia Philly crowd, a single goal away from being swept into elimination.

In overtime the Flyers killed a two minute boarding call on Darroll Powe, and Boucher made nine saves. Each shot was a potential season ender. With less than six minutes left in the first overtime Mike Richards won a neutral zone face-off and the Flyers gained the offensive zone. Simon Gagne, back in his first game after injuring a toe in the Devils series, set up in front of Tuuka Rask at the top of the crease. Matt Carle unleashed a shot from a distance, Gagne redirected past the Boston goaltender and into the net, and once again the Flyers managed to stay alive.

A week later the Flyers skated back on to Boston Garden ice after an improbable comeback, overcoming the loss of Boucher, winning games five and six, and evening the series at three games apiece. But only fifteen minutes into the deciding game seven the Flyers again starring elimination in the face. Back-up goalie Michael Leighton had allowed three goals on 13 shots. Down 3-0, the Flyers had a seemingly uncermountable task in front of them when head coach Peter Laviolette called a timeout to address his team. And they responded.

After getting on the board with a late first period goal, the Flyers dominated the second period, tacking on two more goals, and tying the game at three. Seven minutes into the third period, the longest tenured Flyer Simon Gagne once again answered the call from the Philly faithful, netting a power-play goal, the eventual game-winner as the Flyers came back from being down 3-0 in both the series and the game to win both, 4-3.

Five days ago the Flyers completed the four games to one series win over the Montreal Canadiens, thanks largely to three shutouts by the back-up Leighton and the Flyers defense. Mike Richards lifted that Prince of Wales trophy, and the team that’s playoff involvement hinged on an overtime shootout in the final game of the regular season, a team that fell down three games to none and completed the unlikely comeback for the first time in 35 years, advanced to the Finals. Four wins away from engraving their names forever on Lord Stanley’s Cup.

Now my Rangers friend was quick to point out that I was actually pulling for the Flyers to beat the Habs. Which is a low-down dirty,vile, and slanderous aspersion to cast upon my good name.

It is also absolutely true.

Of course I wanted the trap-playing Habs to lose. The closer they got towards winning the Cup, the more and more we ran the risk of setting the trend, a la the 1995 Devils, for lackluster teams to try their hand at succeeding by playing the trap. And most importantly of all, this would have been all my Penguins fault. After all, they were ones who failed to eliminate Montreal in back-to-back games when they were up 3-2 in the series.

But at the cost of the Flyers making the Cup final? Someone has to be blamed.

Tonight Philadelphia takes on the Chicago Blackhawks in the opening game of the Cup series, a high-flying team completely unlike the kind of which they have seen over the past seven weeks. The Devils were 19^th in goals this regular season, notching 217. The Bruins were 30^th, last in the league, with a measly 196. The Canadiens were 26^th with 210. The Western Conference Champion Blackhawks finished third in the league, amassing 262.

The Chicago Blackhawks have tallied four or more goals eight times this post-season. But then again, the Flyers have held opposing teams to less than two goals eight times this post-season as well. Unstoppable force, meet immovable object.

If you put any weight into the predictions of NHL experts, the Flyers are once again facing long odds. Which, based on the last forty-eight days on their calendar, has become the status quo.

Which has me, understandably a little nervous, and looking for someone to blame.

Seventh Times the Charm

One hundred sixty-five minutes and fifty seconds of hockey ago Milan Lucic flew down the ice, hit the right point and threw a wrist shot that beat Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Michael Leighton low far-side, putting the Boston Bruins up 3-0 in the first period of a decisive game seven. Flyers head coach Peter Laviolette called a rare first period time out and gathered his skaters and goalie around the bench and gave them two options. Either give up now, or get back in the game. The answer was obvious, especially for Leighton, who has made a career and filled a closet with AHL and NHL sweaters by not giving up.

The Flyers responded coming back in the final game, just as they had in the series, to win 4-3. In the over eight periods since then the Flyers and Leighton have yet to surrender a goal. Now, two games into the Eastern Conference Finals, a dominant Leighton has shutout the Montreal Canadiens in back-to-back games, the Flyers have scored 13 unanswered goals, and sit two wins away from their first Stanley Cup appearance since 1997.

This past December, when the Flyers picked Leighton off the waiver wire, he could have been had by anyone. Three seasons ago, he basically was.

A fifth round selection by the Chicago Blackhawks in1999, Leighton didn’t even see NHL ice until four years later in 2003. After six years in the Blackhawks organization and only 42 NHL games played, he was traded to the Buffalo Sabres for Milan Bartovic.

Not exactly a transaction to put on your resume. If you haven’t heard of Bartovic, worry not, neither has anyone else.

After a season in the AHL with Buffalo, the Sabres let his contract expire and Leighton signed with the Anaheim Ducks for 2006-07 season. Less than two months into the season, and without seeing any time in Anaheims crease, the Ducks placed him on waivers, giving the other 29 teams in the league the opportunity to take over his contract for nothing in return.

Claimed by the Nashville Predators, Leighton played exactly twenty minutes for the team before once again finding himself on the waiver wire. Claimed next by the Flyers, he played four games, allowed 12 goals, and was waived again. The next jersey in his closet was that of the Montreal Canadiens, though he never wore it on ice. Before the season was out, and without playing a game for the Habs, Leighton was dealt to the Carolina Hurricanes for a 7^th round pick.

In one season he was waived thrice, traded once, and a member of five franchises. Altogether, he played in five NHL games.

In Carolina Leighton found a spot backing up Cam Ward. Over two and half seasons he saw time in 29 games with less than impressive results. In his last two games with the Hurricanes this past November he allowed 8 goals on 57 shots, losing both.

On December 12^th, 2009 the 28-year-old goaltender was once again placed on waivers, for the fourth time in his career.

And while as a hockey player approaching 30, being waived may not be a badge of honor, it’s not the end of an NHL career. But going through waivers without a single taker can be. Without an interested party, Leighton was assigned to the Albany River Rats.

Three days later the Hurricanes received a call on behalf of an old friend. Peter Laviolette led the 2006 Hurricanes on the back of the out coming of young franchise goalkeeper Cam Ward before being unceremoniously dismissed after a poor start to the 2008 season. A week into replacing John Stevens in Philadelphia mid-season, Laviolette was faced with finding another goaltender after enigmatic off-season acquisition Ray Emery went down with a torn muscle in his abdomen. Laviolette called on his former backup in Carolina to support veteran stop-gap Brian Boucher.

Six days into his time in Philadelphia Leighton took over goaltending duties when Boucher injured a finger. Leighton manned the crease for the Flyers until Emery’s brief return in January, and took back over early February when Emery left due to injury once again.

Continuing the season long trend for the Flyers goaltenders, Leighton himself fell to the injury bug in March, injury his left ankle. Boucher took back over for the Flyers, leading the team into the playoffs, and upsetting the number two seed and Atlantic Division rival New Jersey Devils in the opening round.

In game five of the second round series, with the Flyers down three games to one against the Boston Bruins, Leighton was called on once again to fill the net after Boucher collided with a teammate and torn his MCL.

And yet tonight, as the Flyers hit Montreal ice in front of the packed Bell Centre, with their fifth goaltender of the season, and their third of the playoffs, an aging often-waived goaltender that has bounced from team to team, one foot in the AHL one foot in the NHL, a goaltender that every team in the league passed on only five months ago, they are still alive largely based on the performance Leighton has put on in the crease. In four plus games he's amounted a 0.87 goals against average, a save percentage of .969, two shutouts, and five wins.

Nearly three hours straight of shutout hockey, Leighton has saved the last 70 pucks that came his way, and 120 minutes away from capturing the Prince of Wales Trophy and taking his team, the team that finally gave him his shot, if only because of a cavalcade of injuries, to the NHL Stanley Cup Finals.

Sideline Seats

As the puck drops on the Conference finals, don’t mind me if I don’t quite know what to do. For the first time since June 2008, NHL hockey is being played and the Pittsburgh Penguins aren’t in on it. I feel lost.

Don’t get me wrong, no one should feel even the slightest bit sorry for me. Eleven months ago my boyhood team raised the Stanley Cup for the first time that it really ever meant anything to me. I am completely undeserving of sympathy, this I know. And yet here I am, maybe “struggling to find new meaning in the NHL postseason” is an over-dramatic way of putting it, but at the very least "settling into this new perspective".

The Montreal Canadiens v. Philadelphia Flyers series is a complete no-win situation for me. It’s bound to give me ulcers. I’ve looked at it from every possible perspective, playing out each scenario like the computer playing Tic-Tac-Toe in WarGames, and come to the conclusion that the only way to win is to not play the game.

So let’s start out West.

Repeating the story on the San Jose Sharks seems pointless. We all know the backstory. They have become so synonymous with playoff choking that when the President trophy winning Washington Capitals lost their opening round series to the Habs I mockingly called them “San Jose East”.

And, yes, I don’t know who coined the phrase “What goes around comes around”, but I genuinely despise that person.

The Sharks well-earned reputation for not being able to win the big games reminds me of pre-Super Bowl XLI Peyton Manning. But then 2007 came around for Manning, he finally did what Marino had never done, and he shook that “chocker” tag that had been draped around his neck.

Of course, he proceeded to get knocked out of the NFL playoffs by the rival San Diego Chargers in their opening games in 2008 and 2009, and then just this past February led the Colts to just 17 points in their Super Bowl loss to the New Orleans Saints. And yet, deservedly or not, that reputation is gone because he won the big game. That’s what the Sharks are playing for. A shot at redemption.

Can San Jose pull it off? They are certainly capable of it. Will they? I imagine just about every hockey prognosticator has been burned by past Sharks playoff performances. No one can be blamed for picking against them. Especially with the Chicago Blackhawks primed to make good on the promise they showed in their run to the ’09 Conference Finals. The Sharks could put together a solid series and not advance.

After all, let us not forget that with the offseason commitment to the Indian by transient star winger Marian Hossa, the Hawks have to make it on for Hossa to extend his consecutive Cu p Finals lost streak to three.

Regardless, it should be a great series. Without taking anything away from the two teams out East, I think we are looking at the best series we’ll see this postseason. We didn’t get the Penguins v. Capitals showdown that had Versus and NBC salivating, but we got a hell of a match-up. The more established really good team, with key players aging and heading towards free agency, making what should be one of their last attempts at greatness, at least in their current incarnation. And an up-an-coming team, revitalizing a once proud hockey town fallen upon hard times, and looking to go the distance after falling 3 wins short of a Cup appearance last May.

Back in the East, I believe I earlier made a comparison between it and nuclear holocaust. The Montreal Canadiens having eliminated my Penguins in the second round, and the Philadelphia Flyers being the Penguins archenemy. I’d say it’s like Vader v. Drago, but at least those two film characters had some redeeming qualities by the end of Return of the Jedi/Rockey IV.

To just call the Eastern Conference a mess does a grave disservice to the situation. The only time a higher seed has advanced in the East this postseason was the fourth seeded Penguins beating the Ottawa Senators in the opening round.

We have a number seven seed Flyers that started five different goalies during the regular season, three of whom played more than 25 games. Three tenders have seen postseason time. Picked off the waiver wire in December, Michael Leighton, who replaced Ray Emery before being replaced by Brian Boucher, now replaces Boucher to try and lead Philly to the Cup Finals.

Forget that the rest of the team is a powerhouse that flirts with juggernaut status when Daniel Briere is contributing. They were down three games to none to Boston before storming back and winning it in seven games. I have no clue what to make of this team. They might be Cam Ward and the 2005 Carolina Hurricanes. They might be Johan Hedberg and the 2001 Penguins.

Now the Habs, I know exactly what to make of them. Though I’m hesitant to say, lest I get tagged as a bitter sore loser. But in the famous words of Admiral Ackbar of the Rebel Alliance, “It’s a trap!”

I know it’s more than that. I know that Halak has been masterful. I know the Habs have made him look absolutely Patrick Roy-esque by limiting opponents to long-distance shots. I know Michael Cammalleri has outplayed both Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby. But let’s just call a spade and spade, they play the trap. And that scares the hell out of me.

To what extent the trap is back and to what end, who is to say. But if you aren’t thinking about the 1995 New Jersey Devils and getting just a touch concerned about the future of the game, well than you probably aren’t an alarmist. But I am.

And a bitter one at that.

Eventually I’ll get completely settled in to my sideline seats for the rest of the postseason. I’ll try and enjoy it, because after that it’s all Pirates baseball – they should have their 17^th consecutive losing season wrapped up by mid-August – followed by Steelers football – led by serial (alleged) rapist Ben Roethlisberger.

Wait … when does the puck drop on the Penguins 2010-11season?

Nervous Musings

How We Got Here, and How We Beat the Habs Rope-A-Dope Defense

QB SACK!

A month ago, anxiously awaiting the puck to drop on the NHL postseason, I harped on two things to anyone that would even feign a lent ear. One, as a Penguins fan an eventual match-up with the New Jersey Devils would be our undoing. More than anyone else, they scared me. It was an individual match-up thing. They happened to play a system that corresponded almost perfectly with the Penguins. Remember when you were playing Nintendo Tecmo Bowl and your buddy on defense picked the exact right play call? The defense would tear through the O-line like it was wet tissue paper, slaughter any blocking back and decimate your QB. It was like that. Only uglier. In their six meetings this season the Penguins weren’t just swept by the division-rival Devils, New Jersey didn’t even yield an OT loss consolation point. It was a shellacking.

And two, I said any team facing Pittsburgh should pull the tapes from those Devils games. If they have the guys to play the system, even if for only one series, they had the Penguins number. I said this over and over, mostly just hoping to jinx it so that no team would actually follow through on it.

OPEN FIELD

In our email Pick ‘em Pool, no one was surprised that everyone picked the Washington Capitals to advance past the Montreal Canadiens. I had the sweep, Caps in four. In fact, I though the entire Eastern Conference would go chalk. There just seemed to be a talent gap between the top 4 and bottom 4 playoff teams. By the time the Habs pushed the President Trophy winning Capitals to a decisive Game 7, the East, already openly acknowledged as the Nation League of hockey, had imploded.

Going into the first round against the Devils, the Flyers did their best to set an example for Earth Day by putting to practice the “re-use” policy.  Philly plucked Brian Boucher off the used goalie trash heap, throwing him, once again, between the pipes. Thus continuing a trend in the Flyers crease that only parallels behind Spinal Taps drum set.

And yet, while I was doing my best Chicken Little impersonation at even the slightest mention of the Devils, every Flyers fan I talked to liked the match-up. They had reason, Philly owned the New Jersey in their six division games. And Boucher turned in a baffling brilliant series, outplaying Martin Broduer, and dispatching the Devils in five games.

The third seeded Buffalo Sabres, backstopped by the man who led US to its Silver medalin Vancouver, Ryan Miller faced the woefully offensive challenged Boston Bruins. It had all the makings for a painless and forgettable first round series. I had the Bruins pegged for single digits in total goals. But the Sabres unraveled in front of Miller before the first puck hit the ice, and another top seed was left shaking hands at center ice, wondering just what went wrong.

By the time the Canadiens completed the comeback from being down three games to one, stealing Game 7 in DC, I joined my fellow Penguins brethren in treating the evening like a spontaneous holiday. I threw around the phrase “San Jose East”. I dedicated The Faints “I Disappear” to Alexander Semin, Mike Green, and Alex Ovechkin. It was a free-for-all. I tweeted that I was going to do a “#Caps” search and spend the next three weeks reading everything from that night. The first round could not have possibly gone better. Down Goes Brown summed it up perfectly: The Penguins have to feel like a running back who breaks through a tough tackles, looks up, and sees all open field.

PENS IN SIX

I exuded confidence going into the second round match-up against the eighth seed Habs. I chalked up their upset of the Capitals to two things. First, Jaroslav Halak playing completely out of his mind. And second, the much maligned build of the Washington roster. The go-to instant analysis was that the high flying Caps were built for the regular season, putting the puck in the net with a reckless abandon while playing a different team every other night. But when a team had time to prepare and make the necessary adjustments, the one-dimensional Caps were sunk. I bought in, mostly because as a Pittsburgh fan I was basking in the DC failure. I thought the Habs had to be tired after the long series. I though Halak might steal a game or two. I did not think Montreal could make it happen again. I picked the Pens in six.

Game one went just about as well as I could have hoped. The Penguins got to the net, hindered Halak, and put up three first period goals. By early in the third period they had chased Halak, who allowed 5 goals on 20 shots. They won handily 6-3. Even with Jordan Staal needing emergency surgery to repair a torn tendon in his foot, my confidence grew. Murmurs out of Montreal had Carey Price getting a look to start game two.

Game two started off the same. Halak got the call to return to the crease only minutes before the game. Max Talbot scored an early goal filling in for Staal as the third line center, and all the sudden that “everyone’s contributing” feeling sprang forth. Even when the Habs tied it back up at 1-1, things felt right. Over a stretch from the second period to the third the Penguins outshot the Candiens 30-5. It felt like that overwhelming offensive attack that briefly made an appearance in Pittsburgh coming back from the Olympic break. But as the game bled on without the Penguins scoring, it became a different type of game. The type of game that you dominate for 95% of the time, but fail to put it away, and lose it all on one bad break. Montreal scored on one of only three shots they had in the second period. Camalleri tacked on a third goal in the final frame, and Craig Adams five-minute boarding penalty sealed the game.

The Penguins had nearly doubled the Habs in shots, 39-21. They overwhelming controlled the puck. But Halak and the Canadiens withstood the attack, made good on their scarce opportunities, and the series was tied at a game apiece.

Take that formula and repeat it for games 3, 4, 5, and 6. Pittsburgh outshots Montreal, but the games were low-scoring affairs. The Pens took Game 3 2-0, but Montreal answered in Game 4. Again the Penguins controlled the puck and peppered Halak to no avail. Montreal took control in the third period, scoring twice for the 3-2 come-for-behind victory. The Penguins squeaked out a win back at home in Game 5, 2-1. Montreal forced a Game 7 with a 4-2 Game 6 victory in front of a ruckus Bell Centre crowd. Once again, after stifling one of the league’s most dominant teams, the Canadiens looked to pull off a historical upset.

And so there I sat in silence, after a 12-hour work day, having been up for nearly 24 hours, and after watching the Penguins being forced to the brink of elimination by an eighth seed, thinking to myself, “Just how exactly in the hell is this happening?”

ROPE-A-DOPE DEFENSE

The easiest answer is the same conclusion that we were too quick to arrive at after the Caps had their number called: Jaroslav Halak. The Penguins were putting it on net, and he was keeping it out. There was undeniably truth in that conclusion, but, like most easy answers, there was more to the story.While the Habs didn’t have the puck on the blade of their sticks, they had overwhelmingly controlled where the Penguins played the puck. Which all started with the neutral zone  trap.

Without pulling out the whiteboard, slipping on my tweed jacket, and going too far into Hockey 101, the Habs have eliminated the Penguins rush attack by bringing a forward back to play with the defense in the Montreal side of the neutral zone. By always having an extra skater back, odd-man rushes, which often yield high scoring shots between the circles, are eliminated.

The age old response to the trap is the even more boring “dump and chase”. Gain the blue-line, throw the puck into a corner, beat the defenders to the puck and attempt to establish possession. All of this is pedestrian, a rehashing of any game played against the New Jersey Devils or Minnesota Wild in the last 15 years. I hate the trap. Like reality television, we all know it’s bad for us. I know it. You know it. Everyone knows it. But it works, and so we’ll probably never get rid of it. But what Montreal is doing goes beyond the trap.

Even after the Penguins have established puck possession in the offensive zone, the Canadiens have dictated where the puck has been by absolutely shutting down areas of the attack zone, largely behind the net, along the low sideboards, and between the circles. In doing so, they have jammed a cog in the Penguins cycle, constantly making the only option the escape valve defender along the blue-line. But with the puck on the Penguins defenders stick, they back off into a “rope-a-dope” defense, daring the Penguins to pepper Halak with shots from 45+ feet.

Against just about any other goaltender Pittsburgh would be thrilled to have noted blue-line scoring threat Sergei Gonchar racking up 12 shots in the series. He’s made a career putting the puck in the net from long distance. But not against Halak. Not when Halak can see the puck and the Penguins have been unable to get the need deflections in front of the net.

Of the Penguins 37 shots in Game 6, only eight came from between the circles. Three came from the sideboards, and a whopping 25 came from beyond the circles and along the blue-line. Of the 25 long distance shots, only three were deflected on goal. Not surprisingly, none of those clean shots from long distance amounted to any scoring. All three of the Penguins goals came from those scarce opportunities between the circles.

Shots abound, the Penguins are playing into the same hockey game that the Canadiens used to send the Capitals to their early graves. DC outshot Montreal 134-66 in the seven game series. Their lowest total was 36. When the Canadiens were on their game, it was useless. In the three Capitals victories they scored 17 goals. In their four losses, only five goals.

SHOOT LESS

Seemingly the answer for Pittsburgh goes against every hockey platitude ever uttered. “Every shot is a good shot.” “You missed 100% of the shots you never take.” Largely these are statements ring true. I’ve seen countless big goals come off pedestrian shots that found the back of the net from unlikely stickblades. I’ve seen Darius Kasparaitis seal a series with an OT goal. However, against Halak, pedestrian shots will not cut it. Not with the way he is playing, they are as good as turnovers - squandered opportunities. Everything thrown his way from 50 feet he is going to stop. So the answer: turn down shots.

In the Penguins three victories against Montreal they have amounted 24, 25, and 25 shots. In their 3 losses, they have shot 39, 35, and 37. But don’t let the high totals fool you, they are trash shots. Pucks thrown on the net just hoping something good might happen. Something you can except from the third or fourth lines. Something the Penguins top two scoring lines can no longer accept.

In the past Sidney Crosby has been accused of passing too much, overplaying the puck, getting too cute with the playmaking. Now? Now is the time to do all of the above. Attempt cross passes dissecting the Habs defense, force them. Attempt slap shot passes to the side of the net. Because those perimeter shots won’t cut it. They Habs are giving them to the Pens because they aren’t afraid of them. Take less shots, but take better shots.

In what may be the Penguins last gave ever skated on Civic Arena ice, they are just going to have to ignore that guy. Yeah, “that one”. The one that choses random moments of the game to stand up and drunkenly bellow “Shoot the puck”.

We don’t need more shots, we need better shots, more goals.

The Streaking Washington Capitals

With the number one spot in the East clinched, the Presidents Trophy within grasp, and the largest goal differential in the league by 28 goals (+78) the Alexander Ovechkin led Washington Capitals are undeniably the most dangerous team in the NHL.

They are also one of the league's streakiest.

The Capitals have racked up three-or-more consecutive wins seven times this season, including two six-game streaks, and an unbelievable 14 game-winning streak that lasted from January 13th until they fell to the Canadiens in overtime 28 days later on February 10th.

However they've also had their losing streaks. Five times the Caps have dropped three consecutive games, and once, early in the season they lost four straight.

Perhaps no other statistic better illustrates the nature of Washington than this: following a victory, the Capitals have an impressive 35-14 record. However, following a loss they are a pedestrian 13-13.

And when you look at the team's record outside of that dominant 14-game stretch, they are 35-27. Still top-notched? Absolutely. But much further in line with the other elite teams.

And their goal differential? During that unearthly streak the Capitals outscored opponents 78 goals to 33, winning each game by an average of 3.2 goals. The rest of the season they have outscored their opponents 220 to 187, winning each game by an average of only .5 goals.

There is no denying the Capitals are an imposing team, and are entirely capable of plowing through the Eastern Conference to the Stanley Cup Finals. But there is also another - not as unlikely as it might seem - outcome to the Capitals dominant regular season: That of the 1992-93 Pittsburgh Penguins.

The '92-'93 Penguins won the Patrick division by 13 games, and the Presidents trophy by five. They were a team that finished the regular season with an incredible +99 goal differential (367-368). A team that put together the NHL's longest winning streak ever, rattling off 17 consecutive victories. A team better than the previous two Penguins squads who amounted back-to-back Stanley Cup championships. And a team that stumbled in the second-round of the postseason, losing in seven games to the downright mediocre New York Islanders.

Few doubt the Capitals chances of raising Lord Stanley's Cup in two months time, and for good reason. But perhaps too few realize the likelihood of the streaky team tripping up, dropping consecutive games, as they have done more than a few times this season, and making a disappointing early exit.