Sideline Seats

As the puck drops on the Conference finals, don’t mind me if I don’t quite know what to do. For the first time since June 2008, NHL hockey is being played and the Pittsburgh Penguins aren’t in on it. I feel lost.

Don’t get me wrong, no one should feel even the slightest bit sorry for me. Eleven months ago my boyhood team raised the Stanley Cup for the first time that it really ever meant anything to me. I am completely undeserving of sympathy, this I know. And yet here I am, maybe “struggling to find new meaning in the NHL postseason” is an over-dramatic way of putting it, but at the very least "settling into this new perspective".

The Montreal Canadiens v. Philadelphia Flyers series is a complete no-win situation for me. It’s bound to give me ulcers. I’ve looked at it from every possible perspective, playing out each scenario like the computer playing Tic-Tac-Toe in WarGames, and come to the conclusion that the only way to win is to not play the game.

So let’s start out West.

Repeating the story on the San Jose Sharks seems pointless. We all know the backstory. They have become so synonymous with playoff choking that when the President trophy winning Washington Capitals lost their opening round series to the Habs I mockingly called them “San Jose East”.

And, yes, I don’t know who coined the phrase “What goes around comes around”, but I genuinely despise that person.

The Sharks well-earned reputation for not being able to win the big games reminds me of pre-Super Bowl XLI Peyton Manning. But then 2007 came around for Manning, he finally did what Marino had never done, and he shook that “chocker” tag that had been draped around his neck.

Of course, he proceeded to get knocked out of the NFL playoffs by the rival San Diego Chargers in their opening games in 2008 and 2009, and then just this past February led the Colts to just 17 points in their Super Bowl loss to the New Orleans Saints. And yet, deservedly or not, that reputation is gone because he won the big game. That’s what the Sharks are playing for. A shot at redemption.

Can San Jose pull it off? They are certainly capable of it. Will they? I imagine just about every hockey prognosticator has been burned by past Sharks playoff performances. No one can be blamed for picking against them. Especially with the Chicago Blackhawks primed to make good on the promise they showed in their run to the ’09 Conference Finals. The Sharks could put together a solid series and not advance.

After all, let us not forget that with the offseason commitment to the Indian by transient star winger Marian Hossa, the Hawks have to make it on for Hossa to extend his consecutive Cu p Finals lost streak to three.

Regardless, it should be a great series. Without taking anything away from the two teams out East, I think we are looking at the best series we’ll see this postseason. We didn’t get the Penguins v. Capitals showdown that had Versus and NBC salivating, but we got a hell of a match-up. The more established really good team, with key players aging and heading towards free agency, making what should be one of their last attempts at greatness, at least in their current incarnation. And an up-an-coming team, revitalizing a once proud hockey town fallen upon hard times, and looking to go the distance after falling 3 wins short of a Cup appearance last May.

Back in the East, I believe I earlier made a comparison between it and nuclear holocaust. The Montreal Canadiens having eliminated my Penguins in the second round, and the Philadelphia Flyers being the Penguins archenemy. I’d say it’s like Vader v. Drago, but at least those two film characters had some redeeming qualities by the end of Return of the Jedi/Rockey IV.

To just call the Eastern Conference a mess does a grave disservice to the situation. The only time a higher seed has advanced in the East this postseason was the fourth seeded Penguins beating the Ottawa Senators in the opening round.

We have a number seven seed Flyers that started five different goalies during the regular season, three of whom played more than 25 games. Three tenders have seen postseason time. Picked off the waiver wire in December, Michael Leighton, who replaced Ray Emery before being replaced by Brian Boucher, now replaces Boucher to try and lead Philly to the Cup Finals.

Forget that the rest of the team is a powerhouse that flirts with juggernaut status when Daniel Briere is contributing. They were down three games to none to Boston before storming back and winning it in seven games. I have no clue what to make of this team. They might be Cam Ward and the 2005 Carolina Hurricanes. They might be Johan Hedberg and the 2001 Penguins.

Now the Habs, I know exactly what to make of them. Though I’m hesitant to say, lest I get tagged as a bitter sore loser. But in the famous words of Admiral Ackbar of the Rebel Alliance, “It’s a trap!”

I know it’s more than that. I know that Halak has been masterful. I know the Habs have made him look absolutely Patrick Roy-esque by limiting opponents to long-distance shots. I know Michael Cammalleri has outplayed both Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby. But let’s just call a spade and spade, they play the trap. And that scares the hell out of me.

To what extent the trap is back and to what end, who is to say. But if you aren’t thinking about the 1995 New Jersey Devils and getting just a touch concerned about the future of the game, well than you probably aren’t an alarmist. But I am.

And a bitter one at that.

Eventually I’ll get completely settled in to my sideline seats for the rest of the postseason. I’ll try and enjoy it, because after that it’s all Pirates baseball – they should have their 17^th consecutive losing season wrapped up by mid-August – followed by Steelers football – led by serial (alleged) rapist Ben Roethlisberger.

Wait … when does the puck drop on the Penguins 2010-11season?

Nervous Musings

How We Got Here, and How We Beat the Habs Rope-A-Dope Defense

QB SACK!

A month ago, anxiously awaiting the puck to drop on the NHL postseason, I harped on two things to anyone that would even feign a lent ear. One, as a Penguins fan an eventual match-up with the New Jersey Devils would be our undoing. More than anyone else, they scared me. It was an individual match-up thing. They happened to play a system that corresponded almost perfectly with the Penguins. Remember when you were playing Nintendo Tecmo Bowl and your buddy on defense picked the exact right play call? The defense would tear through the O-line like it was wet tissue paper, slaughter any blocking back and decimate your QB. It was like that. Only uglier. In their six meetings this season the Penguins weren’t just swept by the division-rival Devils, New Jersey didn’t even yield an OT loss consolation point. It was a shellacking.

And two, I said any team facing Pittsburgh should pull the tapes from those Devils games. If they have the guys to play the system, even if for only one series, they had the Penguins number. I said this over and over, mostly just hoping to jinx it so that no team would actually follow through on it.

OPEN FIELD

In our email Pick ‘em Pool, no one was surprised that everyone picked the Washington Capitals to advance past the Montreal Canadiens. I had the sweep, Caps in four. In fact, I though the entire Eastern Conference would go chalk. There just seemed to be a talent gap between the top 4 and bottom 4 playoff teams. By the time the Habs pushed the President Trophy winning Capitals to a decisive Game 7, the East, already openly acknowledged as the Nation League of hockey, had imploded.

Going into the first round against the Devils, the Flyers did their best to set an example for Earth Day by putting to practice the “re-use” policy.  Philly plucked Brian Boucher off the used goalie trash heap, throwing him, once again, between the pipes. Thus continuing a trend in the Flyers crease that only parallels behind Spinal Taps drum set.

And yet, while I was doing my best Chicken Little impersonation at even the slightest mention of the Devils, every Flyers fan I talked to liked the match-up. They had reason, Philly owned the New Jersey in their six division games. And Boucher turned in a baffling brilliant series, outplaying Martin Broduer, and dispatching the Devils in five games.

The third seeded Buffalo Sabres, backstopped by the man who led US to its Silver medalin Vancouver, Ryan Miller faced the woefully offensive challenged Boston Bruins. It had all the makings for a painless and forgettable first round series. I had the Bruins pegged for single digits in total goals. But the Sabres unraveled in front of Miller before the first puck hit the ice, and another top seed was left shaking hands at center ice, wondering just what went wrong.

By the time the Canadiens completed the comeback from being down three games to one, stealing Game 7 in DC, I joined my fellow Penguins brethren in treating the evening like a spontaneous holiday. I threw around the phrase “San Jose East”. I dedicated The Faints “I Disappear” to Alexander Semin, Mike Green, and Alex Ovechkin. It was a free-for-all. I tweeted that I was going to do a “#Caps” search and spend the next three weeks reading everything from that night. The first round could not have possibly gone better. Down Goes Brown summed it up perfectly: The Penguins have to feel like a running back who breaks through a tough tackles, looks up, and sees all open field.

PENS IN SIX

I exuded confidence going into the second round match-up against the eighth seed Habs. I chalked up their upset of the Capitals to two things. First, Jaroslav Halak playing completely out of his mind. And second, the much maligned build of the Washington roster. The go-to instant analysis was that the high flying Caps were built for the regular season, putting the puck in the net with a reckless abandon while playing a different team every other night. But when a team had time to prepare and make the necessary adjustments, the one-dimensional Caps were sunk. I bought in, mostly because as a Pittsburgh fan I was basking in the DC failure. I thought the Habs had to be tired after the long series. I though Halak might steal a game or two. I did not think Montreal could make it happen again. I picked the Pens in six.

Game one went just about as well as I could have hoped. The Penguins got to the net, hindered Halak, and put up three first period goals. By early in the third period they had chased Halak, who allowed 5 goals on 20 shots. They won handily 6-3. Even with Jordan Staal needing emergency surgery to repair a torn tendon in his foot, my confidence grew. Murmurs out of Montreal had Carey Price getting a look to start game two.

Game two started off the same. Halak got the call to return to the crease only minutes before the game. Max Talbot scored an early goal filling in for Staal as the third line center, and all the sudden that “everyone’s contributing” feeling sprang forth. Even when the Habs tied it back up at 1-1, things felt right. Over a stretch from the second period to the third the Penguins outshot the Candiens 30-5. It felt like that overwhelming offensive attack that briefly made an appearance in Pittsburgh coming back from the Olympic break. But as the game bled on without the Penguins scoring, it became a different type of game. The type of game that you dominate for 95% of the time, but fail to put it away, and lose it all on one bad break. Montreal scored on one of only three shots they had in the second period. Camalleri tacked on a third goal in the final frame, and Craig Adams five-minute boarding penalty sealed the game.

The Penguins had nearly doubled the Habs in shots, 39-21. They overwhelming controlled the puck. But Halak and the Canadiens withstood the attack, made good on their scarce opportunities, and the series was tied at a game apiece.

Take that formula and repeat it for games 3, 4, 5, and 6. Pittsburgh outshots Montreal, but the games were low-scoring affairs. The Pens took Game 3 2-0, but Montreal answered in Game 4. Again the Penguins controlled the puck and peppered Halak to no avail. Montreal took control in the third period, scoring twice for the 3-2 come-for-behind victory. The Penguins squeaked out a win back at home in Game 5, 2-1. Montreal forced a Game 7 with a 4-2 Game 6 victory in front of a ruckus Bell Centre crowd. Once again, after stifling one of the league’s most dominant teams, the Canadiens looked to pull off a historical upset.

And so there I sat in silence, after a 12-hour work day, having been up for nearly 24 hours, and after watching the Penguins being forced to the brink of elimination by an eighth seed, thinking to myself, “Just how exactly in the hell is this happening?”

ROPE-A-DOPE DEFENSE

The easiest answer is the same conclusion that we were too quick to arrive at after the Caps had their number called: Jaroslav Halak. The Penguins were putting it on net, and he was keeping it out. There was undeniably truth in that conclusion, but, like most easy answers, there was more to the story.While the Habs didn’t have the puck on the blade of their sticks, they had overwhelmingly controlled where the Penguins played the puck. Which all started with the neutral zone  trap.

Without pulling out the whiteboard, slipping on my tweed jacket, and going too far into Hockey 101, the Habs have eliminated the Penguins rush attack by bringing a forward back to play with the defense in the Montreal side of the neutral zone. By always having an extra skater back, odd-man rushes, which often yield high scoring shots between the circles, are eliminated.

The age old response to the trap is the even more boring “dump and chase”. Gain the blue-line, throw the puck into a corner, beat the defenders to the puck and attempt to establish possession. All of this is pedestrian, a rehashing of any game played against the New Jersey Devils or Minnesota Wild in the last 15 years. I hate the trap. Like reality television, we all know it’s bad for us. I know it. You know it. Everyone knows it. But it works, and so we’ll probably never get rid of it. But what Montreal is doing goes beyond the trap.

Even after the Penguins have established puck possession in the offensive zone, the Canadiens have dictated where the puck has been by absolutely shutting down areas of the attack zone, largely behind the net, along the low sideboards, and between the circles. In doing so, they have jammed a cog in the Penguins cycle, constantly making the only option the escape valve defender along the blue-line. But with the puck on the Penguins defenders stick, they back off into a “rope-a-dope” defense, daring the Penguins to pepper Halak with shots from 45+ feet.

Against just about any other goaltender Pittsburgh would be thrilled to have noted blue-line scoring threat Sergei Gonchar racking up 12 shots in the series. He’s made a career putting the puck in the net from long distance. But not against Halak. Not when Halak can see the puck and the Penguins have been unable to get the need deflections in front of the net.

Of the Penguins 37 shots in Game 6, only eight came from between the circles. Three came from the sideboards, and a whopping 25 came from beyond the circles and along the blue-line. Of the 25 long distance shots, only three were deflected on goal. Not surprisingly, none of those clean shots from long distance amounted to any scoring. All three of the Penguins goals came from those scarce opportunities between the circles.

Shots abound, the Penguins are playing into the same hockey game that the Canadiens used to send the Capitals to their early graves. DC outshot Montreal 134-66 in the seven game series. Their lowest total was 36. When the Canadiens were on their game, it was useless. In the three Capitals victories they scored 17 goals. In their four losses, only five goals.

SHOOT LESS

Seemingly the answer for Pittsburgh goes against every hockey platitude ever uttered. “Every shot is a good shot.” “You missed 100% of the shots you never take.” Largely these are statements ring true. I’ve seen countless big goals come off pedestrian shots that found the back of the net from unlikely stickblades. I’ve seen Darius Kasparaitis seal a series with an OT goal. However, against Halak, pedestrian shots will not cut it. Not with the way he is playing, they are as good as turnovers - squandered opportunities. Everything thrown his way from 50 feet he is going to stop. So the answer: turn down shots.

In the Penguins three victories against Montreal they have amounted 24, 25, and 25 shots. In their 3 losses, they have shot 39, 35, and 37. But don’t let the high totals fool you, they are trash shots. Pucks thrown on the net just hoping something good might happen. Something you can except from the third or fourth lines. Something the Penguins top two scoring lines can no longer accept.

In the past Sidney Crosby has been accused of passing too much, overplaying the puck, getting too cute with the playmaking. Now? Now is the time to do all of the above. Attempt cross passes dissecting the Habs defense, force them. Attempt slap shot passes to the side of the net. Because those perimeter shots won’t cut it. They Habs are giving them to the Pens because they aren’t afraid of them. Take less shots, but take better shots.

In what may be the Penguins last gave ever skated on Civic Arena ice, they are just going to have to ignore that guy. Yeah, “that one”. The one that choses random moments of the game to stand up and drunkenly bellow “Shoot the puck”.

We don’t need more shots, we need better shots, more goals.

The Streaking Washington Capitals

With the number one spot in the East clinched, the Presidents Trophy within grasp, and the largest goal differential in the league by 28 goals (+78) the Alexander Ovechkin led Washington Capitals are undeniably the most dangerous team in the NHL.

They are also one of the league's streakiest.

The Capitals have racked up three-or-more consecutive wins seven times this season, including two six-game streaks, and an unbelievable 14 game-winning streak that lasted from January 13th until they fell to the Canadiens in overtime 28 days later on February 10th.

However they've also had their losing streaks. Five times the Caps have dropped three consecutive games, and once, early in the season they lost four straight.

Perhaps no other statistic better illustrates the nature of Washington than this: following a victory, the Capitals have an impressive 35-14 record. However, following a loss they are a pedestrian 13-13.

And when you look at the team's record outside of that dominant 14-game stretch, they are 35-27. Still top-notched? Absolutely. But much further in line with the other elite teams.

And their goal differential? During that unearthly streak the Capitals outscored opponents 78 goals to 33, winning each game by an average of 3.2 goals. The rest of the season they have outscored their opponents 220 to 187, winning each game by an average of only .5 goals.

There is no denying the Capitals are an imposing team, and are entirely capable of plowing through the Eastern Conference to the Stanley Cup Finals. But there is also another - not as unlikely as it might seem - outcome to the Capitals dominant regular season: That of the 1992-93 Pittsburgh Penguins.

The '92-'93 Penguins won the Patrick division by 13 games, and the Presidents trophy by five. They were a team that finished the regular season with an incredible +99 goal differential (367-368). A team that put together the NHL's longest winning streak ever, rattling off 17 consecutive victories. A team better than the previous two Penguins squads who amounted back-to-back Stanley Cup championships. And a team that stumbled in the second-round of the postseason, losing in seven games to the downright mediocre New York Islanders.

Few doubt the Capitals chances of raising Lord Stanley's Cup in two months time, and for good reason. But perhaps too few realize the likelihood of the streaky team tripping up, dropping consecutive games, as they have done more than a few times this season, and making a disappointing early exit.

The Bizarro Season

And now for something completely different. Not a blog post. Not 400 words about something that happened ten seconds ago and will be yesterdays news tomorrow. No, a nice little essay on the first season back from the lockout and the effects on it's statistics. As you'll see, I've obviously been reading Bill Simmons too much, and the short essay is jammed with footnotes. Sue me, it's a good style and if you're going to steal, steal from the best. Bleacher Report knows what I'm talking about.

Can't really say I've used this format before, so until I figure out a decent way to bring this to the interwebs, it's a PDF. Which is great, because then you can easily print it out and take it to the can to read. Or read it and give it to a friend (really, it's what Al Gore would want you to do, tree killer). You might just want to leave out the part where you took it to the toilet though. George Costanza knows what I'm talking about.

Read the PDF