Lies, Damn Lies, and ESPN's Statistic

I'm really not sure the last time I wrote about anything besides hockey on this blog. It just happened at some point. Originally I thought I needed to be broader, writing about the happenings in a wide variety of sports. Somehow I eventually settled into hockey. Which retrospectively makes a good deal of sense since it is both a niche sport and the sport I am most fond of. However, if my obsession with hockey is superseded by anything, it would be my sad devotion to numbers.

I quantify everything, from the number of steps up a stairwell to the exact amount of coffee grinds I use for a single cup. Numbers and I are BFFs. Which is precisely why I get so upset when they are woefully misused. Numbers are my little bear cubs, and you don't get between a bear and his cubs.

And this is why I feel the need to rail against, of all things, the statistic that ESPN is using to underscore the NFL's fining of "Gun Slinger", and general ass-hat, Brett Favre.

Since the $50,000 fine was announced earlier this week, I have repeatedly heard and read a startling statistic recited, one that goes something along the lines of "the fine is the equivalent of fining the average person $1.20".

It didn't seem right, so I took to tracking the original source of the statistic, only to discover it's appearance in the sidebar of an article on the fine at the Mothership, the Worldwide Leader, herself.

Now this is a great statistic for making a point because it shockingly underlines how much money a professional football player pockets, to the extent that a fine that would possibly bankrupt you or I amounts to nothing more than pocket change for the leagues career interceptions leader. And that's precisely why ESPN concocted it.

However, this is a horrible statistic because it is so blatantly and purposefully untruthful that it goes beyond the extent of bad math and settles clearly in the territory of bad journalism.

From the first time I heard it, it sounded off. Quickly pulling up the calc app, I calculated the fine to be 00.3125% of Favre's $16M salary this year. Estimating the average person's salary to be somewhere in the range of $45K, this equates to a .... $125 fine. Surely small enough to still make ESPN's original point, and yet drastically different from their numbers.

So how did they come to the $1.20 statistic? Just bad math? Maybe a misplaced decimal? Something surely we have all fallen to at one point or another. Sadly, no, they were decidedly dishonest because, well hey, it makes a more "shocking" statistic.

See, ESPN decided that instead of looking at it as a percentage of his income, clearly the easiest and most logical way to go about it, they would frame the statistic in the context of the amount of time that Brett Favre "worked". And how should they go about deciding time worked? Easy - minutes in a game. Which is something akin to deciding how long a writer has "worked" on an article by determining the amount of time it takes a person to read it.

Farve's $16M contract easily breaks down to $1M per game, with 60 minutes of play per game (even though - as even my mother, who hasn't watched a football game since the Cowboys defeated the Steelers in Super Bowl XXX, knows - a football game actually lasts somewhere around 180 minutes). Now dividing this $1M by the "60 minutes of game play", they reached a completely asinine and misleading statistic that Brett Favre makes $17,000 per minute of "work".

And thus, since it would only take Favre just under 3 minutes of work to make $50K, it is the equivalent of $1.20 for an Average Joe like us (another quick calculation determines that I am well below status of "Average Joe" when it comes to pay grades).

Not only does ESPN ignore the actual length of a game, they pretend somehow that Favre shows up at 1 PM on Sunday, clocks in, plays the game (in just 60 minutes), and clocks out. Even for Favre, who knows practically no limits to avoiding practice, this assumption that he only works 16 hours a year is beyond preposterous.

The most upsetting aspect of the situation is how their concocted statistic undermines an essentially valid point: Favre is being slapped on the wrist.

Whether you use their bogus of $1.20 or a much more accurate $125, the point remains the same, after his bigger-than-the-game shenanigans, refusing to cooperate with the NFL's investigation of his ... umm ... "dissemination of  unorthodox self-portraits", Favre got off easy. 

It's a shame that, not completely unlike their "Gun Slinger" in a big moment, EPSN improvised, went outside their journalism playbook, and made a idiotically pointless and self-inflicted error.

Shots Taken per Goal

In a battle along the half-boards a winger kicks the puck back to the blue-line. The defenseman throws it across the ice to his partner, who settles the puck down, takes a stride towards the net, raises his stick and sends a shot .... three feet wide and a foot too high, right off the windshield.

Missed shots tend to drive me crazy.  I've been known to fire off a quick frustrated tweet when someone (usually named Kris Letang) can't hit the net. And when I'm at work reminded myself how poor of a hockey player I am, there is nothing more likely to throw me into a Bruce Bodreau-esque tirade than not being able to put the rubber on net.

This isn't something the NHL takes into consideration with it's shooting percentage numbers. They simply divide a players Goals by Shots on Goal. Something Alexander Ovechkin, with a league leading 66 Missed Shots, might be alright with, but something surely Daniel Briere, who has a mere 27 Missed Shots, would feel is misleading.

And so here I've thrown together the On Goal % and Shots Taken per Goal statistics.

I have added Shots on Goal and Missed Shots to create Total Shots Taken. Based on that number I divided a players Shots on Goal by Total Shots Taken for the On Goal %. Then I divide Total Shots Taken by Goals to determine how many shots on average a player takes for a goal.

For example, Steven Stamkos scores a goal for every 6.6 shots taken. 74.4% of those shots taken are on goal.

My Thoughts:

- It comes as no surprise that Claude Giroux tops this list. As a Penguins fan I've seen more than enough of Giroux as he develops into an all-star caliber player

- Crosby and Stamkos. After cooling off for a bit, Stammer is back at it. Just maybe, with them nipping at each others heels, they can push each other further, like Magic and Bird. 50 in 50 looks out of reach, but someone, or both, might score 70 goals for the first time in 14 years.

- Even not accounting for the bevy of frozen rubber he's thrown wide of the net, Ovechkin's shooting percentage has taken a big hit so far this season.Taking all those missed shots into account, it isn't pretty for Ovechkin. You've gotta scroll for a while down that chart before you find his name.

- Same goes for Evgeni Malkin.

- As an Eastern Conference fan, I don't get to see nearly enough games from teams out west. This means I'm usually cautious of pontificating on guys that I haven't seen a ton of. That said, let's agree that Chris Stewart needs to take more shots. He is right behind Crosby and Stamkos at 6.9 Shots Taken per Goal, and he's put an insane 86.6% of his shots on net.

Complete stats available in a Google Spreadsheet

Disparity

With the disparity between games played, even a quarter way into the NHL season, the regular standings are pretty indiscernible. Unlike baseball, standard standings do not make use of the Games Behind statistic, which, when comparing a team like the Bruins who have played 17 games to the Penguins who have played 21, can be quite useful.

And so here we have it. A current (set to be out of date by nightfall) chart of the pertinent statistics in terms of games played.

[click to make it eat its vegetables and grow big and strong]

My Thoughts:

- Biggest drop from ranking by points to points per game? My Pittsburgh Penguins who go from 6th to 16th. Eventually GP is going to even out and the Pens are going to have to keep with their current pace, 9 pts in the last 5 games, to stay ahead of the pack.

- Where are these goals coming from in Boston? They're averaging 3 goals/game, on pace for 40 more goals than last season. Who would have thought free agent acquisition Nathan Horton would bring this much?

- The Panthers have to improve, right? The only difference between Florida and the San Jose is a single win and 4 overtime losses. All of the Panthers 9 losses have come in regulation, which is why they are so low in Pts/GP, but they've got a positive goal differential.

- The Blues have an even goal differential, but are currently the 5th best team in Pts/GP. Why? Because Halak has fallen apart. Factor out his last 4 losses and the Blues are +14 in 14 GP.

- The West is tight. 10 teams between 20-23 pts. Seriously.

- Look at the huge gap between the top 4 playoff teams in the East and the bottom 4. Washington, Boston, Montreal, and Philadelphia are in the top 6. Tampa, Pittsburgh, New York, and Carolina are 17th-23rd.

- Holding current pace, it's going to take 96 pts to make the playoffs in the West, and only 82 in the East. So basically, yeah, the West is probably going to have multiple teams miss the playoffs when they have better records than East playoff teams. Again.

Snitches

You might want to take a seat. I have news.

I don't know if you have heard or not, but in some emails from within NHL headquarters three years ago someone had the audacity to claim that a certain player, Marc Savard, has a proclivity towards accentuating penalties in an effort to buy calls.

Yes. Diving. Or being "a fake artist" as Colin Campbell so eloquently worded it.

I am shocked ... let me repeat ... SHOCKED that such accusations would be vocalized.

No one, especially Bruins fans, have ever accused Savard of diving. Don't even try Googling it, it's a fact.

In all my years as a fan of the Pittsburgh Penguins, (particularly the last five) I have never heard even the slightest hint of such impropriety in our fair sport.

Have You no respect for the sanctity of the game, sir?

Exactly what do you even know about this young man? On what authority can you make such incendiary statements?

Colin Campbell, coach of NY Rangers when they drafting Marc Savard in 1995

And even if, dare I say it, atrocities such as diving had infiltrated the game of ice hockey, have you not heard a little phrase that goes something along the lines of "snitches get stitches"?

Why would you rat out a guy like that Colie? Do we really need that kind of interoffice gossip flying around the NHL. Don't be a Chatty Cathy.

I mean, what business of this Stephen character is it what Savard does?

 Stephen Walkom, Director of Officiating. 

Keep that kind of garbage to yourself Mr. Campbell. We don't need those foul accusations sullying our great game.


But hold on. I'd hate to leave it like that.

As any great disciplinarian would, I, like Mr. Campbell, know that a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down.

That's why I'd like to congratulate Campbell. Why might you ask? For being a good father.

In those same e-mails Colin did something else. Something any loving dad would do, use his powerful position to lean on the governing body that oversees an official that, according to the hometown radio broadcast, made a questionable call against his son.

It's touching really. Just makes me want to give my own dad a call and thank him for the behind the scenes bureaucratic pressure he applied to help me get to where I am today. Thanks pops.

And so, in closing, I say this to you Mr. Campbell: A little less meddling in other peoples business and a little more being a super dad.

The Blame Game

I have counted. It's been 16 months, 2 weeks, and 2 days. Since that picture was taken. Since Marc-Andre Fleury backstopped the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Stanley Cup championship. Since Fleury allegedly answered the questions and doubt that has dogged him through his career.

"Trade Fluery" opined one fan on twitter last night, using the unorthodox "u-e" spelling. "fleury is considered a part of the core. but his play is quickly making him expendable. and his contract an albatross" chimed in another.

Ten games into the 2011 season and the 26-year-old former first overall draft pick with a $5 million-a-year contract has played five games. He has won just one. He has allowed 3.4 goals-a-game, and mounted a pathetic .861 save percentage.

33-year-old perennial NHL backup, working for just over the league minimum at 500K, Brent Johnson has been between the pipes for the other five games. He has won four. His only loss came in a valiant 0-1 overtime game in St. Louis. He is allowing only 1.39 goals-a-game and is 3rd in the league with a stifling .951 save percentage.

And less than a year and a half later, in light of the goaltending controversy, the questions have once again bubbled to the surface. Is Fleury a liability?  Can he be a number one?

While Penguins fans seem to never back down from confronting even the slightest of perceived Crosby criticisms, Fleury has been so often the target of blame that it has become a joke among the fan base. It has it's own Facebook group and Twitter hashtag.

A year prior to lifting Lord Stanley's Cup, following a 2008 Finals loss to the Red Wings in which Evgeni Malkin was nearly invisible, Fleury received an inordinate amount of  criticism despite making 205 saves over the six game Detroit offensive onslaught. While he made a few costly mistakes, each one was magnified, whether it was his rebounds, tendency to overplay the puck, or making his way onto the ice.

He's been targeted so frequently that it almost feels like a knee-jerk instinctive reaction to defend Fleury. Undoubtedly he is struggling. And at the same time Johnson is playing as well as ever has. If Johnson wasn't so hot we'd just look to see Fleury play through it. You can blame him for his lackluster play, but with the exception of the 3-2 Montreal loss in which he allowed a late cheap goal, you can hardly blame the notches in the loss column on Fleury. 

The Penguins play fast and loose. While their defense leads the league in points, they've seen defensive-minded players leave via free agency one after another the past few years. Hal Gill, Rob Scuderi, Mark Eaton. Orpik still remains a force around the perimeter, arguably their only shutdown player Jordan Staal has yet to suit up this season due to a foot infection that is beginning to warrant it's own low-budget horror film adaptation. They allowed 237 goals last season, more than any other team that qualified for the postseason.

It's not easy in the Penguins crease. Even at the top of his game Fleury has never been a statistically great tender. Of the four seasons he's played over 40 games his best save percentage is a pedestrian .912. But despite an undeserved reputation that has followed him from his junior days, Fleury has been a big-game goaltender. He is unquestionably an asset with an uncanny ability to bounce back.

In the second greatest hockey game I've ever witnessed, game five of the 2008 finals, Fleury turned in an all-time great playoff performance, making 55 total saves, including the last 24 over two and half periods of overtime play in which one mistake would end the Penguins season.

In the first round of the 2009 postseason match-up with the Flyers Fleury stole games two and four, making, respectively, 38 saves on 40 shots, and an unreal 45 saves on 46 shots.

Following a 5-0 debacle in game five of the 2009 Cup Finals, again against the Wings, Fleury allowed a single goal on 26 shots in game six. In the decisive seventh game, with everything on the line, let's remember that while the eventual Conn Smyth winner hadn't scored since the first period of game four, and Crosby spent the majority of the 3rd on the bench injured, it was Max Talbot's two goals and Fleury's 23 saves on 24 shots that sealed the deal.

Tomorrow night against the division rival Flyers, play Johnson. Ride the hot hand, because that is what you do in hockey. Every season we relearn the importance of those early games when a playoff spot is decided by a single point. Play Johnson because he'll give us the best chance to pocket a couple points in the standings.

But make no mistake, in several months time when things really start to matter, Fleury will be in the crease for the Penguins doing what he has done over the past five seasons, giving the Penguins their best chance to win.

And shouldering the blame when they don't.