tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4413299140023863770.post7190809386481660346..comments2024-01-14T05:38:57.460-05:00Comments on Every Facet of the Game: Predicting the Playoffs is Simplemaybemaximetalbothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04533144751137042661noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4413299140023863770.post-86260213761834013132013-05-30T02:07:32.114-04:002013-05-30T02:07:32.114-04:00I watched every game because it was very entertain...I watched every game because it was very entertaining game. It's really hard to predict what team to go in the playoffs but there are teams which dominate the game.Bookkeepers Sunshine Coasthttp://www.richarddarcy.com.au/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4413299140023863770.post-4010610038357129332011-04-28T13:37:58.829-04:002011-04-28T13:37:58.829-04:00Can we get a new prediction for Round 2 in the eas...Can we get a new prediction for Round 2 in the east?CoachZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00251191209320134804noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4413299140023863770.post-54947685967927666762011-04-13T11:29:28.703-04:002011-04-13T11:29:28.703-04:00What about mining the data from later in the seaso...What about mining the data from later in the season. It is often said that the team that plays the best 2nd half and plays well in April and May win's the cup. Apply the same SRS to the second half of the season or say, since the trade deadline and see how SRS performs as a predictor.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02289094134594422118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4413299140023863770.post-85265602462908916572011-04-13T09:13:34.728-04:002011-04-13T09:13:34.728-04:00That's the best thing about SRS. Because Stren...That's the best thing about SRS. Because Strength of Schedule is such a strong factor in the statistic, there is no bias towards team with easier schedules (i.e. the Eastern Conference)maybemaximetalbothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04533144751137042661noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4413299140023863770.post-40260649265113473292011-04-13T03:32:18.164-04:002011-04-13T03:32:18.164-04:00In terms of predicting playoff outcomes, it might ...In terms of predicting playoff outcomes, it might be interesting to recalculate the SRS to only include the teams that made the playoffs. That would eliminate some of the statistical bias that comes from having an easier schedule.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4413299140023863770.post-637793502506828472011-04-13T01:52:19.432-04:002011-04-13T01:52:19.432-04:00"If you could add in some of those variables,..."If you could add in some of those variables, you might be able to increase your accuracy further."<br /><br />Statistical models don't work like that. More variables makes it easier to fit past data, but not necessarily predict future outcomes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4413299140023863770.post-57261284252230526572011-04-12T16:23:30.765-04:002011-04-12T16:23:30.765-04:00Absolutely, I just stumbled on this early this mor...Absolutely, I just stumbled on this early this morning, but I'm definitely looking on a system that puts more weight on recent games.maybemaximetalbothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04533144751137042661noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4413299140023863770.post-88403061528884120742011-04-12T16:21:52.318-04:002011-04-12T16:21:52.318-04:00Good question. It is based on the end of the seaso...Good question. It is based on the end of the season averages.maybemaximetalbothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04533144751137042661noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4413299140023863770.post-53326542923443110122011-04-12T16:19:54.712-04:002011-04-12T16:19:54.712-04:00First of all this is frigging awesome and one of t...First of all this is frigging awesome and one of the coolest new stats I've read about in a long time.<br /><br />I do have a question about how this is calculated. In your example where Pittsburgh plays the Lightning, and the Lightning are allowing 2.85 goals a game, is the 2.85 used the figure for the Lightning at that point in the season, or is it based on their final goals allowed at the end of the season?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4413299140023863770.post-1093869499093949952011-04-12T15:43:39.233-04:002011-04-12T15:43:39.233-04:00Could this be more accurate if only the second hal...Could this be more accurate if only the second half of the season was taken into account? I would guess that Buffalo's rating is far higher in the second half of the sesason than it was in the first half.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4413299140023863770.post-15452782476127345352011-04-12T15:42:14.840-04:002011-04-12T15:42:14.840-04:00Is there a way you can tweak this to take into acc...Is there a way you can tweak this to take into account injuries or trades or late-season trends? Because it's clearly not the same team over 82 games. <br /><br />If you could add in some of those variables, you might be able to increase your accuracy further.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com